The market moved
-1.1ppin 24h · now 9¢
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Other · resolves Dec 31 · vol $354.65
Why
Probability fell slightly down to 9¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.1pp shift. Resolution depends on the cdc case counter between january 1, 2026, 12:00 am et and december 31, 2026, 11:59 pm et — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET — https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html).
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.