The market moved
+0.5ppin 24h · now 7¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
Geopolitics · resolves May 31 · vol $3.1K
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 7¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Resolution depends on imf — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: IMF — https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.