The market moved
-0.8ppin 24h · now 3¢
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
Geopolitics · resolves May 31 · vol $3.2K
Why
Probability fell slightly down to 3¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.8pp shift. Resolution depends on imf — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: IMF — https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.