The market moved

+26.5ppin 24h · now 73¢

Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during Coast Guard event?

Politics · resolves May 20 · vol $1.3K

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 73¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 26.5pp shift. Resolution depends on 9news.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: 9news.com — https://www.9news.com/article/news/politics/national-politics/president-trump-keynote-coast-guard-academy-graduation/507-8b10f608-7ffa-402b-a3ec-6b13bae6d179).
  • Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
  • Market resolves in 2.9h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.