The market moved
+12.5ppin 24h · now 73¢
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Coast Guard event?
Geopolitics · resolves May 20 · vol $349.38
Why
Probability rose sharply up to 73¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 12.5pp shift. Resolution depends on 9news.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: 9news.com — https://www.9news.com/article/news/politics/national-politics/president-trump-keynote-coast-guard-academy-graduation/507-8b10f608-7ffa-402b-a3ec-6b13bae6d179).
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 4.1h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.