Will Trump's approval rating hit 49% in 2026?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 10¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.1pp shift. Resolution depends on silver bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between january 1 and december 31, 2026 — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026 — https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.