Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?

Why

Probability fell decisively down to 39¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 6.5pp shift. Resolution depends on the opec monthly oil market report published for each month — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month — https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.