Smart Money

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Probability moved up 11.0pp in 24h with 6.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

• 24h Δ 11.0pp, 1h Δ 1.0pp
• Turnover 6.6× liquidity
• Spread 1.0¢

Open the market and check whether the move is event-driven (news landed), liquidity-driven (rebalance / orderbook drain), or noise on a thin spread. Treat as research, not entry. · sample: High

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?

Probability moved down 5.0pp in 24h with 2.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

• 24h Δ -5.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp
• Turnover 2.1× liquidity
• Spread 1.0¢

Open the market and check whether the move is event-driven (news landed), liquidity-driven (rebalance / orderbook drain), or noise on a thin spread. Treat as research, not entry. · sample: High

Starmer out by May 19, 2026?

Probability moved down 4.1pp in 24h with 5.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

• 24h Δ -4.1pp, 1h Δ -0.1pp
• Turnover 5.4× liquidity
• Spread 0.2¢

Open the market and check whether the move is event-driven (news landed), liquidity-driven (rebalance / orderbook drain), or noise on a thin spread. Treat as research, not entry. · sample: High

Cavaliers vs. Pistons

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -24h
• UMA status: proposed
• Source type: ambiguous

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Spread: Pistons (-4.5)

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -24h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -24h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -4h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in 0h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship?

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -4h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Spread: Pistons (-3.5)

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -24h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 210.5

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -4h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship?

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -4h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 206.5

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -24h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship?

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -4h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -4h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Chicago Sky vs. Minnesota Lynx

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -5h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Valorant: MIBR vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs

Expires in 1h. UMA dispute is active.

• Expires in 1h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

Expires in 36h. UMA dispute is active.

• Expires in 36h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship?

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -4h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 17?

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in 0h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -9h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON - Game 2 Winner

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in 0h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-17?

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -6h
• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Spurs vs. Thunder

Expires in 20h.

• Expires in 20h
• Source type: ambiguous

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Iran closes its airspace by May 18?

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -4h

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-17?

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• Expires in -9h

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 18?

Expires in 12h.

• Expires in 12h

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Starmer out by May 19, 2026?

Expires in 32h.

• Expires in 32h

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Iran closes its airspace by May 21?

Expires in 68h.

• Expires in 68h

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18?

Expires in 15h.

• Expires in 15h

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18?

Expires in 12h.

• Expires in 12h

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18?

Expires in 12h.

• Expires in 12h

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?

UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

• UMA status: proposed
• No explicit resolution source

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• UMA status: disputed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• UMA status: disputed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners

UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics

UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

• UMA status: proposed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• UMA status: disputed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?

UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

• UMA status: disputed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?

Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• UMA status: disputed

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

• No explicit resolution source

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

• No explicit resolution source

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

• No explicit resolution source

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Open resolution ambiguity — verify the source.

• No explicit resolution source

Event-time risks can't be replayed from price history alone. · sample: Forward-only