True-Cacao
0x00c40c6e474f3ea420b4cead872623bf3df0bcd4
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
34
Open notional
$205.45
Total PnL
$-415.86
Realised
$5.31
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
116 shares @ 86.0¢·now 93.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$108.84
$8.84
- YES
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?
289 shares @ 17.3¢·now 16.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$46.17
$-3.83
- NO
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
69 shares @ 36.2¢·now 30.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.75
$-4.25
- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
94 shares @ 16.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.91
$-6.09
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
400 shares @ 2.5¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$8.56
$-1.44
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
111 shares @ 9.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$7.22
$-2.78
- YES
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
53 shares @ 19.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
5409 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-24.79
- NO
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET
929 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-9.29
Recent activity
- REDEEMSPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 13?$25.00May 15, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYSPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 13?$15.24May 13, 02:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$10.45May 13, 02:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$10.49May 13, 02:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by May 15?$1.04May 13, 02:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$25.80May 13, 02:03 UTC
- REDEEMNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$58.82Apr 29, 06:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET$3.00Apr 11, 02:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?$15.00Apr 10, 05:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$20.00Apr 10, 05:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 10?$0.00Apr 10, 05:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$10.00Apr 10, 05:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$0.00Apr 10, 05:09 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$31.65Apr 10, 05:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill House and Senate pass funding bill by November 30?$0.00Apr 10, 05:09 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET$0.00Apr 10, 05:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$10.00Apr 10, 05:04 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET$10.03Apr 10, 05:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET$5.00Apr 10, 04:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?$20.00Apr 10, 04:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $16.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 2, 01:46 UTC
- Last active
- May 15, 17:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".