Likely-Spear
0x0da3b22e31309eec06a1cc245ccbb4f70f9267fa
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
67
Open notional
$2.0K
Total PnL
$-581.18
Realised
$12.55
Win rate
38%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 67- YES
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?
1087 shares @ 69.4¢·now 70.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$766.47
$11.72
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
3391 shares @ 16.9¢·now 21.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$729.12
$155.53
- YES
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
195 shares @ 54.0¢·now 73.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$142.51
$37.09
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?
773 shares @ 24.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$127.58
$-58.05
- YES
Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?
43 shares @ 89.2¢·now 91.0¢·exp Sep 8, 2026$38.72
$0.78
- YES
Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?
52 shares @ 48.0¢·now 49.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$25.31
$0.52
- YES
Will Eric Pratt be the Republican Nominee for MN-02?
25 shares @ 41.8¢·now 88.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$22.00
$11.55
- YES
Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $50B and $75B at market close on IPO day?
92 shares @ 8.1¢·now 12.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$11.92
$4.43
- YES
Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $75B and $100B at market close on IPO day?
102 shares @ 4.0¢·now 9.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$9.74
$5.66
- YES
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June?
137 shares @ 14.9¢·now 6.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$8.68
$-11.68
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.08May 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.08May 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.08May 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.08May 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.08May 14, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMNext Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31?$0.78May 13, 05:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?$0.94May 13, 05:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Sherrod Brown be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Ohio?$20.00May 13, 05:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the March decision?$40.00May 13, 05:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the April Meeting?$70.00May 13, 05:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?$80.00May 13, 05:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$88.00May 13, 05:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$500.00May 13, 05:12 UTC
- REDEEMNo change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?$860.01May 13, 05:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.08May 13, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.08May 12, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.08May 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.08May 10, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.07May 9, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.07May 8, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 8, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".