Early-Thought
0x1380ba7927e090807bf6ed7eea86da8fc95a12cb
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$6.7K
Total PnL
$-26.02
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
6700 shares @ 98.6¢·now 98.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$6.6K
$-3.35
- NO
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
51 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$50.23
$-0.08
- NO
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?
8 shares @ 97.3¢·now 96.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$7.93
$-0.07
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
7 shares @ 98.2¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$7.07
$0.07
- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
4 shares @ 95.0¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$4.16
$0.16
- NO
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the June Meeting?
4 shares @ 98.4¢·now 98.6¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$3.71
$0.01
- NO
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
5 shares @ 67.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.36
$-0.77
- NO
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
7 shares @ 98.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?
6 shares @ 94.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 25, 2025$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
5 shares @ 93.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$207.08May 18, 03:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.57May 18, 03:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$66.00May 18, 02:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.06May 18, 02:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$140.00May 18, 01:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$90.00May 18, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.13May 18, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.91May 18, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$223.00May 18, 00:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.91May 17, 23:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.06May 17, 23:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.78May 17, 23:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$108.00May 17, 22:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$111.00May 17, 22:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.39May 17, 22:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.60May 17, 22:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.63May 17, 22:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$215.00May 17, 22:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.33May 17, 22:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.01May 17, 21:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $290.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 16, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 03:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".