0x149bcbfbdc772d60cdb252c1513405cef7c8d435
0x149bcbfbdc772d60cdb252c1513405cef7c8d435
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
72
Open notional
$248.65
Total PnL
$-74.96
Realised
$-33.95
Win rate
47%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 72- YES
Will the Democrats win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?
862 shares @ 10.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$38.80
$-47.42
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
35 shares @ 37.9¢·now 69.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.24
$11.09
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
97 shares @ 17.6¢·now 18.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$18.15
$0.97
- YES
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?
171 shares @ 7.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.86
$0.86
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
87 shares @ 10.3¢·now 13.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$12.16
$3.15
- YES
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
17 shares @ 41.1¢·now 57.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.78
$2.78
- YES
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
15 shares @ 52.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$9.51
$1.47
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 89.9¢·now 89.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$8.96
$-0.04
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
13 shares @ 44.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.80
$3.15
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
15 shares @ 25.8¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$7.97
$3.97
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00May 18, 00:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Finland win Eurovision 2026?$0.00May 17, 03:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?$0.00May 17, 03:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Australia win Eurovision 2026?$1.98May 17, 03:44 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 17, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMIran closes its airspace by May 15?$0.00May 16, 07:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?$2.25May 16, 06:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?$11.51May 16, 06:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keiko Fujimori and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff?$0.00May 16, 06:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rafael López Aliaga finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$0.00May 16, 04:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ricardo Belmont finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$0.00May 16, 04:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$0.00May 16, 04:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$4.41May 16, 04:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$0.00May 16, 04:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$0.00May 16, 02:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$0.00May 16, 01:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$6.43May 16, 01:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$4.18May 16, 01:31 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 16, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLIsraeli parliament dissolved by June 30?$0.14May 15, 10:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $0.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 15, 10:12 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".