Scared-Refuse
0x1538b16ccb0b8ea9636cabdbba275e75c5d20090
Wallet digest
Activity score
97/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$149.12
Total PnL
$-4.35
Realised
$9.56
Win rate
80%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- NO
Will Mark Johnston be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?
10 shares @ 89.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$10.00
$1.04
- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
30 shares @ 40.3¢·now 31.6¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$9.46
$-2.61
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the CT-05 House seat?
10 shares @ 76.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Nov 4, 2026$9.05
$1.45
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat?
10 shares @ 81.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Nov 4, 2026$8.95
$0.85
- YES
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
10 shares @ 64.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$8.95
$2.55
- NO
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?
10 shares @ 83.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.85
$0.55
- NO
Will Frank Ocean release an album in 2026?
10 shares @ 69.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.00
$1.10
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-22 House seat?
10 shares @ 82.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2026$8.00
$-0.20
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the TX-32 House seat?
10 shares @ 72.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2026$7.10
$-0.10
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-22 House seat?
10 shares @ 58.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Nov 4, 2026$6.65
$0.85
Recent activity
- TRADESELLCap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?$2.50Apr 20, 14:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$4.90Apr 20, 14:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?$0.00Apr 20, 11:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?$6.00Apr 20, 11:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election$6.48Apr 2, 08:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?$3.60Mar 30, 09:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?$8.00Mar 30, 01:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?$3.90Mar 29, 16:33 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Playoffs$0.00Mar 27, 11:11 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Playoffs$0.00Mar 27, 11:11 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Playoffs$0.00Mar 27, 11:11 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Playoffs$0.00Mar 27, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$1.80Mar 26, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$2.60Mar 26, 15:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$8.52Mar 26, 11:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Playoffs$2.50Mar 24, 21:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$5.40Mar 23, 20:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2026?$8.60Mar 23, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?$6.40Mar 23, 09:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Royce White be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?$9.64Mar 23, 06:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $4.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 10, 08:46 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 20, 14:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".