Light-Bulb
0x153b22e659b68393b0136df4ad94a27e523a65d8
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
48
Open notional
$10.5K
Total PnL
$647.43
Realised
$-67.07
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 48- NO
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
784 shares @ 63.8¢·now 94.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$740.16
$240.16
- NO
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
796 shares @ 79.7¢·now 83.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$664.53
$30.12
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
714 shares @ 70.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$589.29
$89.29
- NO
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?
441 shares @ 68.0¢·now 97.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$427.72
$127.72
- NO
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
556 shares @ 66.5¢·now 74.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$414.59
$44.59
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
472 shares @ 89.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$356.29
$-63.71
- NO
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
435 shares @ 68.9¢·now 81.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$354.68
$54.68
- NO
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30?
365 shares @ 82.2¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$348.64
$48.64
- NO
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?
362 shares @ 82.8¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$335.03
$35.03
- NO
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
337 shares @ 89.1¢·now 87.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$292.64
$-7.36
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYHantavirus outbreak by June 30?$102.39May 17, 09:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Syria security agreement by June 30?$101.00May 17, 09:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?$123.00May 17, 09:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?$128.21May 16, 11:36 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?$215.05May 16, 06:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?$85.32May 14, 17:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?$85.45May 14, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?$370.00May 13, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Twice release a song in 2026?$111.12May 13, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?$150.00May 13, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?$122.00May 13, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$250.00May 13, 17:50 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$200.00May 12, 15:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?$111.00May 10, 10:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$200.00May 10, 10:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 10, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$110.00May 9, 20:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$200.00May 9, 19:48 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 9, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02May 8, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $151.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 1, 06:39 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 09:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".