Deserted-Cottage
0x19f83e2cd86e19468acb5a3621971d2ba662fa4d
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
71
Open notional
$1.5K
Total PnL
$-528.73
Realised
$4.16
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 71- NO
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
219 shares @ 91.4¢·now 91.5¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$200.15
$0.15
- NO
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
134 shares @ 89.5¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$125.43
$5.43
- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
109 shares @ 92.0¢·now 93.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$101.25
$1.25
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
269 shares @ 37.2¢·now 36.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$96.91
$-3.09
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
20243 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$91.09
$-47.07
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
365 shares @ 24.6¢·now 24.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$89.73
$-0.27
- NO
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
505 shares @ 31.7¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$73.18
$-86.82
- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
688 shares @ 16.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$65.31
$-44.69
- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?
67 shares @ 17.0¢·now 85.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$57.00
$45.64
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
5882 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$38.24
$-61.76
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.04May 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.04May 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.04May 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.04May 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.04May 14, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$10.00May 13, 13:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?$51.72May 13, 13:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$52.46May 13, 13:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$52.36May 13, 13:53 UTC
- YIELD$0.04May 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.04May 12, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.04May 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02May 10, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$10.47May 9, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$10.28May 9, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$10.49May 9, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$10.49May 9, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$10.50May 9, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$10.50May 9, 17:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$10.50May 9, 17:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $41.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 29, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".