Surprised-Grouse
0x1ae38dee1baf953b9877e4d768019318eb302d7d
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
23
Open notional
$75.68
Total PnL
$21.14
Realised
$175.42
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
24 shares @ 84.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.83
$0.83
- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
21 shares @ 93.2¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.95
$-0.05
- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
125 shares @ 16.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.88
$-8.13
- NO
Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
10 shares @ 95.7¢·now 97.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.15
$0.15
- NO
Bitcoin BIP-360 implemented in 2026?
5 shares @ 91.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.70
$-0.30
- YES
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?
9 shares @ 32.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$2.67
$-0.33
- YES
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?
19 shares @ 10.5¢·now 10.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$2.00
$0.00
- YES
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?
13 shares @ 16.0¢·now 14.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.75
$-0.25
- YES
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?
23 shares @ 8.6¢·now 7.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.75
$-0.25
- NO
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
1001 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-23.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$12.20May 13, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?$2.05May 10, 21:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?$2.05May 10, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?$2.05May 10, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?$3.06May 10, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$20.07May 10, 21:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?$2.06Apr 29, 21:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?$2.06Apr 29, 21:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYChatGPT Outage by April 10?$1.00Apr 7, 13:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin BIP-360 implemented in 2026?$5.00Apr 2, 09:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYEpstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?$10.00Apr 1, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$10.00Apr 1, 19:59 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$14.08Apr 1, 19:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?$6.23Mar 30, 10:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?$11.11Mar 17, 22:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$10.00Mar 11, 16:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?$5.00Mar 7, 23:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?$5.00Mar 7, 23:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$20.00Feb 26, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?$20.00Feb 25, 06:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $15.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 1, 11:49 UTC
- Last active
- May 13, 22:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".