Improbable-Walkway
0x1e1a038d4bab0d831492871134cb0d6df1b7ff36
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$345.93
Total PnL
$-181.85
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Kash Patel out by December 31?
185 shares @ 92.3¢·now 66.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$123.18
$-47.74
- YES
Kash Patel out by June 30?
206 shares @ 83.6¢·now 32.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$66.91
$-105.18
- FK BODØ/GLIMT
Spread: IK Start (-1.5)
68 shares @ 94.4¢·now 96.2¢·exp May 10, 2026$65.82
$1.25
- YES
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
64 shares @ 93.1¢·now 42.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$27.28
$-32.51
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
21 shares @ 93.9¢·now 94.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$19.31
$0.03
- YES
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
22 shares @ 87.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.91
$-1.21
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
11 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$10.60
$1.91
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
10 shares @ 95.2¢·now 94.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$9.52
$-0.13
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET
5 shares @ 68.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$5.40
$1.73
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?$19.28May 18, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET$4.54May 18, 16:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET$4.27May 18, 16:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET$3.75May 18, 15:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: IK Start (-1.5)$12.38May 18, 06:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: IK Start (-1.5)$2.16May 18, 06:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: IK Start (-1.5)$28.88May 18, 06:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: IK Start (-1.5)$21.20May 18, 06:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by December 31, 2026?$19.22May 18, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?$9.64May 18, 00:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?$13.73May 17, 13:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Croatia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?$70.70May 17, 13:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ukraine be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?$115.43May 17, 13:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?$119.83May 17, 13:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$128.34May 17, 13:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$195.54May 17, 13:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$196.72May 17, 13:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Poland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$206.40May 17, 13:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?$0.00May 17, 13:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?$12.61May 16, 22:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $45.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 11, 21:03 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 16:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".