Quizzical-Arrogance
0x21064fd320bfd5a86f8c92a94d3209edf4154dea
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$33.6K
Total PnL
$-344.4K
Realised
$-301.9K
Win rate
19%
199 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
19000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 75.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$14.4K
$4.9K
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
19000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 24.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.6K
$-4.9K
- YES
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
4979 shares @ 14.5¢·now 22.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$1.1K
$395.52
- YES
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
4000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$780.00
$-1.2K
- YES
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?
5000 shares @ 11.7¢·now 10.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$525.03
$-60.47
- YES
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?
4741 shares @ 9.2¢·now 11.1¢·exp Dec 19, 2026$523.92
$86.86
- YES
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
3770 shares @ 0.8¢·now 10.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$395.80
$366.35
- YES
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?
12540 shares @ 3.1¢·now 3.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$382.48
$-1.48
- YES
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup?
11598 shares @ 2.4¢·now 3.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2026$353.74
$77.24
- YES
Will LA Galaxy win the 2026 MLS Cup?
8459 shares @ 2.2¢·now 4.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2026$342.57
$154.37
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.01May 18, 05:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$44.00May 18, 05:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?$1.30May 18, 05:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.01May 18, 05:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.01May 18, 05:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?$11.00May 18, 05:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.00May 18, 05:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?$0.97May 18, 05:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.80May 18, 05:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship?$1.74May 18, 05:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.01May 18, 05:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship?$2.00May 18, 05:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship?$1.81May 18, 05:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.01May 18, 05:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.00May 18, 05:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship?$1.90May 18, 05:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$5.06May 18, 05:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship?$1.02May 18, 05:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?$1.54May 18, 05:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.00May 18, 05:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $5.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 18, 05:00 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 05:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 199 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".