Substantial-Strawman
0x21454352253122c806282430e5edbf8b7c851e5d
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$215.55
Total PnL
$-1.9K
Realised
$8.96
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?
334 shares @ 48.0¢·now 64.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$213.76
$53.44
- NO
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 74.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.79
$0.31
- YES
Will CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia end in a draw?
900 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-108.00
- MIDDLE TENNESSEE BLUE RAIDERS
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks
809 shares @ 17.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-139.15
- UP
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
760 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-288.80
- NO
Will Trump say "Fun" this week? (March 29)
607 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$0.00
$-200.31
- BLACKBURN BEAVERS
Blackburn Beavers vs. Eastern Illinois Panthers
603 shares @ 21.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 2, 2025$0.00
$-127.23
- YES
Will there be exactly two announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?
569 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-125.18
- NO
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75%?
491 shares @ 63.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-309.33
- UNDER
Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club: O/U 4.5
388 shares @ 78.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-302.64
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Ethena reach $0.52 by December 31, 2026?$69.92Apr 21, 04:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?$1.00Apr 17, 10:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethena reach $0.52 by December 31, 2026?$657.78Apr 11, 17:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$30.60Apr 11, 10:10 UTC
- TRADESELLIsraeli parliament dissolved by June 30?$300.08Apr 11, 09:10 UTC
- TRADESELLIsraeli parliament dissolved by June 30?$6.40Apr 11, 09:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethena reach $0.52 by December 31, 2026?$247.52Apr 11, 07:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$30.60Apr 11, 04:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethena reach $0.52 by December 31, 2026?$72.96Apr 11, 03:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethena reach $0.52 by December 31, 2026?$97.92Apr 11, 02:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethena reach $0.52 by December 31, 2026?$4.08Apr 11, 02:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethena reach $0.52 by December 31, 2026?$53.04Apr 11, 02:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsraeli parliament dissolved by June 30?$167.96Apr 10, 23:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia end in a draw?$108.00Apr 10, 21:46 UTC
- TRADESELLMilitary action against Iran ends by April 26, 2026?$2.02Apr 10, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?$115.00Apr 9, 13:56 UTC
- TRADESELLDan Clancy out as Twitch CEO before 2027?$60.94Apr 9, 12:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?$357.76Apr 9, 09:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?$368.94Apr 8, 02:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYMilitary action against Iran ends by April 26, 2026?$499.50Apr 7, 23:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $185.62
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 22, 11:31 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 21, 04:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".