Watchful-Production
0x21847e62996173449d295bc00c5d5f427fb500df
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
73
Open notional
$441.61
Total PnL
$-187.16
Realised
$77.11
Win rate
59%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 73- NOTHING
Nothing Ever Happens: May
40 shares @ 75.8¢·now 89.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$35.84
$5.51
- NO
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?
32 shares @ 94.6¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$31.63
$1.45
- NO
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
35 shares @ 72.2¢·now 89.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$31.20
$5.87
- NO
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
47 shares @ 24.6¢·now 57.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$26.56
$15.11
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
24 shares @ 46.1¢·now 96.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$22.86
$11.88
- NO
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
23 shares @ 78.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$22.05
$3.96
- NO
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
21 shares @ 92.3¢·now 96.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$20.43
$0.89
- NO
Will SpaceX list on the NYSE?
19 shares @ 89.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$19.13
$2.06
- NO
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
18 shares @ 66.5¢·now 91.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$16.69
$4.49
- NO
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?
17 shares @ 97.5¢·now 98.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$16.35
$0.17
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?$0.35May 18, 04:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?$0.00May 18, 04:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?$0.00May 18, 04:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?$1.09May 18, 04:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?$0.94May 18, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$6.36May 17, 22:12 UTC
- TRADESELLMicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?$6.37May 17, 21:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$1.54May 17, 19:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$0.07May 17, 19:09 UTC
- TRADESELLMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$0.00May 17, 19:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$0.36May 17, 18:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$0.41May 17, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$0.46May 17, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$0.09May 17, 18:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$0.31May 17, 18:23 UTC
- TRADESELLMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$0.13May 17, 18:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$1.23May 17, 18:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$0.50May 17, 17:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$7.82May 17, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?$6.40May 17, 17:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $3.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 16, 13:02 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 04:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".