0x2503bdb78d9a2af985f9423c10554f3e1b179be5
0x2503bdb78d9a2af985f9423c10554f3e1b179be5
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
25
Open notional
$513.35
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$152.14
Win rate
17%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- NO
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
549 shares @ 53.4¢·now 35.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$195.89
$-97.46
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
243 shares @ 52.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$124.89
$-1.21
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
128 shares @ 79.5¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$100.56
$-1.31
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
35 shares @ 91.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$29.40
$-2.26
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?
400 shares @ 5.0¢·now 4.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$17.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the MD-04 House seat?
364 shares @ 6.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$16.36
$-5.45
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?
121 shares @ 14.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$10.30
$-6.67
- NO
NATO dissolves before 2027?
8 shares @ 93.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.22
$0.15
- NO
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
6 shares @ 75.8¢·now 75.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.43
$-0.04
- NO
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
22 shares @ 91.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$3.16
$-16.68
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?$14.23May 14, 02:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?$60.00May 14, 02:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?$33.29May 8, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?$47.02Apr 26, 23:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?$10.00Apr 26, 23:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?$7.48Apr 26, 23:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?$0.30Apr 26, 23:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?$3.80Apr 26, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?$14.00Apr 26, 23:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?$0.70Apr 26, 22:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?$49.09Apr 26, 22:48 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by April 30?$133.25Apr 26, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?$7.64Apr 26, 21:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?$156.46Apr 26, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?$7.09Apr 26, 21:25 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by April 30?$171.70Apr 26, 21:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?$1.58Apr 26, 17:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?$1.40Apr 26, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?$1.92Apr 26, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?$52.36Apr 26, 14:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $28.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 25, 16:04 UTC
- Last active
- May 14, 02:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".