Probable-Semicircle
0x25867077c891354137bbaf7fde12eec6949cc893
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$51.9K
Total PnL
$-301.1K
Realised
$-258.49
Win rate
74%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
24000 shares @ 84.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.7K
$1.6K
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
13595 shares @ 71.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$7.3K
$-2.4K
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
6916 shares @ 70.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$5.4K
$518.73
- NO
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference?
5003 shares @ 75.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.3K
$550.28
- YES
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
10627 shares @ 35.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.0K
$265.68
- NO
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
14500 shares @ 18.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp May 27, 2026$2.5K
$-72.50
- NO
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
3000 shares @ 42.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp May 27, 2026$2.5K
$1.2K
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
5374 shares @ 36.9¢·now 38.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$2.1K
$85.48
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
2938 shares @ 34.4¢·now 39.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.2K
$149.81
- GOLDEN KNIGHTS
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche
2700 shares @ 36.0¢·now 36.5¢·exp May 21, 2026$985.47
$13.50
Recent activity
- YIELD$1.40May 18, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$2.7KMay 17, 11:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel win Eurovision 2026?$29.00May 17, 04:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026?$100.00May 17, 04:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?$561.87May 17, 04:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Romania win Eurovision 2026?$3.0KMay 17, 04:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026?$3.4KMay 17, 04:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Finland win Eurovision 2026?$31.0KMay 17, 04:59 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$35.20May 17, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$1.42May 17, 00:14 UTC
- REWARD$2.20May 17, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYGolden Knights vs. Avalanche$2.12May 16, 19:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYGolden Knights vs. Avalanche$10.80May 16, 19:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYGolden Knights vs. Avalanche$1.13May 16, 18:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYGolden Knights vs. Avalanche$2.81May 16, 17:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYGolden Knights vs. Avalanche$36.00May 16, 17:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYGolden Knights vs. Avalanche$16.88May 16, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYGolden Knights vs. Avalanche$0.56May 16, 16:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYGolden Knights vs. Avalanche$1.13May 16, 16:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYGolden Knights vs. Avalanche$0.56May 16, 16:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $94.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 16, 09:54 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".