Honest-Churn
0x2633714d653752553c5c1ec4be856c21f02e67b1
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
41
Open notional
$339.82
Total PnL
$-398.08
Realised
$32.07
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- YES
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
366 shares @ 12.9¢·now 22.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$82.40
$35.14
- YES
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?
247 shares @ 13.8¢·now 25.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$63.07
$28.91
- NO
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
120 shares @ 45.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$51.00
$-3.00
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
65 shares @ 46.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$49.24
$19.24
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
341 shares @ 15.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$32.35
$-18.60
- NO
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
60 shares @ 34.0¢·now 31.4¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$18.81
$-1.59
- YES
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?
60 shares @ 25.0¢·now 23.8¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$14.28
$-0.72
- YES
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?
150 shares @ 47.5¢·now 5.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$7.48
$-63.52
- YES
Human moon landing in 2026?
226 shares @ 4.4¢·now 3.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.90
$-3.10
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
19 shares @ 26.8¢·now 31.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.05
$0.91
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYHantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?$0.01May 18, 06:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?$0.28May 18, 06:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?$0.33May 18, 06:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?$0.67May 18, 00:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$20.40May 17, 22:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?$0.93May 17, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?$0.48May 17, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?$3.06May 17, 15:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?$11.67May 17, 12:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?$2.05May 17, 12:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?$6.28May 6, 09:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$7.60May 5, 23:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?$7.67May 5, 11:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?$8.02May 5, 00:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?$9.38May 4, 18:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?$3.32May 4, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?$15.53Apr 25, 22:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?$2.19Apr 25, 21:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?$0.83Apr 25, 19:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?$9.00Apr 25, 19:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $9.51
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 11, 07:48 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 06:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".