Polished-Trial
0x26ada0e5d50a0bc891082ea9ec3f32c9838f990e
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
57
Open notional
$514.29
Total PnL
$-2.5K
Realised
$-40.17
Win rate
46%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 57- ANTHROPIC
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
341 shares @ 60.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$233.59
$28.98
- YES
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 12, 2026?
188 shares @ 72.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$188.00
$52.64
- YES
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026?
228 shares @ 19.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$35.34
$-7.98
- YES
Will Titan launch a token by September 30, 2026?
179 shares @ 46.0¢·now 15.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$26.85
$-55.49
- YES
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
22 shares @ 83.0¢·now 47.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$10.34
$-7.92
- YES
Will USD-denominated stablecoin market share fall below 99% in 2026?
60 shares @ 21.0¢·now 11.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.60
$-6.00
- YES
Will Olivia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?
5 shares @ 72.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$5.00
$1.40
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 13.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$1.77
$1.51
- NO
Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?
1 shares @ 91.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$1.25
$0.10
- NO
USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch?
1 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.00
$0.16
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?$91.00Apr 27, 09:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill King Charles say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the joint meeting of Congress?$397.98Apr 27, 09:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill King Charles say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the joint meeting of Congress?$349.74Apr 24, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?$94.50Apr 24, 02:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?$10.26Apr 21, 11:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Powell say "Pandemic" during April press conference?$19.24Apr 21, 04:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 22, 2026?$140.48Apr 21, 03:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYSydney FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 1.5$283.84Apr 13, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 22, 2026?$386.32Apr 13, 18:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Powell say "Pandemic" during April press conference?$46.54Apr 13, 17:00 UTC
- TRADESELLOpenAI IPO before 2027?$611.84Apr 13, 09:45 UTC
- TRADESELLOpenAI IPO before 2027?$622.72Apr 13, 09:44 UTC
- TRADESELLOpenAI IPO before 2027?$31.50Apr 13, 09:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpenAI IPO before 2027?$1.1KApr 13, 05:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw?$233.81Apr 13, 03:59 UTC
- TRADESELLNaim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?$609.02Apr 12, 21:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Modena FC 2018 win on 2026-03-17?$256.33Apr 12, 21:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Modena FC 2018 win on 2026-03-17?$95.14Apr 12, 21:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 4–5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?$483.36Apr 12, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 12, 2026?$135.36Apr 12, 20:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $256.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 30, 17:11 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 27, 09:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".