Favorable-Exception
0x2843e56657e712982ae4d933d14d339f3c200ac5
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
70
Open notional
$3.9K
Total PnL
$-12.1K
Realised
$124.54
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 70- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
1235 shares @ 81.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.1K
$142.15
- YES
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?
905 shares @ 66.3¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$719.49
$119.49
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1282 shares @ 39.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$570.52
$70.51
- YES
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
35591 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp May 15, 2026$302.52
$-772.39
- NO
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
462 shares @ 65.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$274.62
$-25.38
- YES
Will Endrick be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?
249 shares @ 80.5¢·now 92.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$228.64
$28.64
- YES
Will Rayan be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?
320 shares @ 62.4¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$158.55
$-41.45
- YES
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1316 shares @ 7.6¢·now 8.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$108.55
$8.55
- YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
617 shares @ 16.2¢·now 16.7¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$102.78
$2.78
- NO
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?
118 shares @ 74.0¢·now 73.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$86.02
$-1.06
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17?$491.80May 18, 00:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.02May 18, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-17?$111.94May 17, 17:38 UTC
- TRADESELLClarity Act signed into law in 2026?$112.30May 17, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYGeneva Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Mariano Navone$125.58May 17, 14:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$103.88May 17, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$103.89May 17, 14:18 UTC
- REDEEMGeneva Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Edas Butvilas$333.33May 17, 13:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jeju SK FC vs. FC Anyang end in a draw?$45.79May 17, 08:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andrey Santos be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?$101.06May 17, 08:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rayan be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?$202.25May 17, 08:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bento be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?$51.12May 17, 08:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 31?$300.00May 17, 08:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYGeneva Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Edas Butvilas$202.40May 17, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Como 1907 vs. Parma Calcio 1913 end in a draw?$102.49May 17, 08:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17?$303.51May 17, 08:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYInternationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Yulia Putintseva vs Oleksandra Oliynykova$202.20May 17, 08:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYZagreb: Jan Choinski vs Arthur Fery$201.28May 17, 08:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$259.74May 17, 08:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill SE Palmeiras vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?$370.37May 17, 05:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $120.77
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 16, 18:59 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".