Milky-Insulation
0x36628e3bfa6211e78868595b8b5e780a0d1eca07
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
19
Open notional
$22.67
Total PnL
$-363.78
Realised
$50.97
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will Karolína Muchová win the 2026 Women’s French Open?
1679 shares @ 2.8¢·now 1.4¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$22.67
$-24.09
- YES
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
3000 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-38.57
- YES
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
1000 shares @ 12.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-125.00
- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
1000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will South Korea win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
1000 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-18.00
- YES
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?
418 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-22.09
- YES
Will there be 6-8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?
352 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-26.60
- YES
Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
309 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-8.39
- YES
Will Eileen Gu (CHN) win the gold medal for Ski Slopestyle - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
208 shares @ 34.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-71.40
- YES
Will Netherlands win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
200 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$59.80May 2, 13:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?$1.11Apr 29, 22:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?$1.64Apr 29, 22:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?$27.37Apr 29, 22:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?$26.52Apr 29, 22:53 UTC
- TRADESELLAI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?$26.45Apr 29, 22:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?$27.31Apr 29, 22:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$40.05Apr 25, 22:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karolína Muchová win the 2026 Women’s French Open?$46.76Apr 18, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$4.10Apr 18, 07:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$0.85Apr 11, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?$5.50Apr 11, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?$44.68Apr 11, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYAI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?$40.00Apr 11, 01:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?$34.52Apr 9, 03:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?$0.48Apr 9, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?$58.69Apr 9, 01:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?$63.82Apr 9, 01:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?$9.00Apr 9, 01:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?$22.09Apr 9, 01:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $62.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 28, 13:10 UTC
- Last active
- May 2, 13:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".