Complete-Referendum
0x3c593aeb73ebdadbc9ce76d4264a6a2af4011766
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
123
Open notional
$138.3K
Total PnL
$-83.6K
Realised
$7.8K
Win rate
45%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 123- NO
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
45551 shares @ 96.5¢·now 99.2¢·exp May 15, 2026$45.2K
$1.2K
- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
43333 shares @ 91.2¢·now 92.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$40.2K
$705.20
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
22609 shares @ 67.5¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.5K
$237.37
- NO
Netanyahu out by June 30?
5555 shares @ 86.0¢·now 96.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.4K
$599.93
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
19237 shares @ 36.3¢·now 24.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$4.7K
$-2.3K
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
57047 shares @ 36.4¢·now 7.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$4.3K
$-16.5K
- NO
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?
3733 shares @ 11.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$3.7K
$3.3K
- NO
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?
3333 shares @ 97.1¢·now 99.2¢·exp May 15, 2026$3.3K
$68.33
- NO
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
3709 shares @ 70.3¢·now 82.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.0K
$435.27
- YES
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
17471 shares @ 22.4¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.5K
$-1.4K
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$24.96May 18, 06:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$2.90May 18, 06:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$2.43May 18, 06:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$2.43May 18, 06:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$2.43May 18, 06:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$6.13May 18, 06:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$31.03May 18, 06:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$89.86May 18, 06:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$58.00May 18, 06:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$6.13May 18, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$1.23May 18, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$4.49May 18, 06:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$0.41May 18, 06:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$4.08May 18, 06:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$73.88May 18, 06:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$3.68May 18, 06:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$8.70May 18, 06:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$1.65May 18, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$4.14May 18, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$4.14May 18, 05:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $48.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 18, 04:04 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 06:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".