Warm-Secretary
0x3cafe19c407342bc7cea21424e861c37038c6d8a
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
55
Open notional
$73.2K
Total PnL
$33.1K
Realised
$32.5K
Win rate
63%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 55- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
20669 shares @ 85.4¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.1K
$1.5K
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
4233 shares @ 89.6¢·now 92.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$3.9K
$122.69
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
3634 shares @ 95.0¢·now 96.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.5K
$68.48
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
3199 shares @ 96.7¢·now 99.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$3.2K
$72.49
- NO
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?
2148 shares @ 97.7¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.1K
$30.09
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
1981 shares @ 95.4¢·now 95.3¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.9K
$-2.82
- NO
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
1850 shares @ 94.8¢·now 98.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.8K
$68.38
- NO
Trump out as President by June 30?
1752 shares @ 95.9¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.7K
$48.25
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
1695 shares @ 90.1¢·now 95.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.6K
$92.04
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
1714 shares @ 90.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.6K
$76.15
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Trump Insult Xi this week?$1.4KMay 18, 06:28 UTC
- YIELD$2.25May 18, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$400.00May 17, 02:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?$200.00May 17, 02:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?$500.00May 17, 02:40 UTC
- YIELD$2.25May 17, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026?$1.45May 16, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by May 31, 2026?$20.01May 16, 12:01 UTC
- REDEEMXi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?$1.5KMay 16, 06:52 UTC
- YIELD$2.25May 16, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?$909.41May 15, 12:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?$600.00May 15, 12:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump and Xi hug at their summit?$1.5KMay 15, 09:35 UTC
- YIELD$2.46May 15, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?$75.24May 14, 18:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?$700.90May 14, 18:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?$1.1KMay 14, 18:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$1.9KMay 14, 18:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?$1.4KMay 14, 07:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$1.4KMay 14, 07:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $734.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 9, 15:55 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 06:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".