Organic-Modeling
0x3e2322ddba75024fd268cff486b2009615fd8579
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
31
Open notional
$8.7K
Total PnL
$994.98
Realised
$276.21
Win rate
78%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- NO
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
2121 shares @ 57.5¢·now 67.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.4K
$211.12
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?
1026 shares @ 58.0¢·now 75.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$769.37
$174.39
- NO
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
739 shares @ 71.1¢·now 74.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$550.77
$24.79
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
600 shares @ 67.5¢·now 90.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$543.00
$138.17
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
663 shares @ 74.8¢·now 74.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$493.93
$-1.94
- NO
US recession by end of 2026?
629 shares @ 73.7¢·now 73.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$462.12
$-1.07
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
400 shares @ 80.0¢·now 92.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$371.40
$51.40
- NO
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?
414 shares @ 80.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$353.91
$22.77
- NO
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
484 shares @ 74.4¢·now 73.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$353.21
$-6.85
- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
500 shares @ 23.0¢·now 70.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$350.75
$235.75
Recent activity
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$340.40May 17, 12:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$2.73May 17, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$1.77May 17, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$2.97May 17, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?$78.64May 16, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$27.04May 16, 20:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$2.70May 16, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?$21.25May 16, 13:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$8.28May 16, 12:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?$2.11May 16, 12:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$5.22May 16, 12:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$4.27May 16, 12:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$2.70May 16, 11:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?$50.00May 16, 11:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$5.41May 16, 11:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$99.00May 16, 10:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$5.41May 16, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$2.70May 16, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$2.70May 16, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$2.97May 16, 10:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $65.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 8, 21:00 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 12:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".