Threadbare-Chops
0x43cfb584c8bfa7f322ea258e251bd656b30788fa
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
61
Open notional
$11.8K
Total PnL
$-13.8K
Realised
$-217.60
Win rate
63%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 61- NO
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
5000 shares @ 94.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$4.5K
$-175.00
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1869 shares @ 93.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.7K
$-9.35
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
2000 shares @ 82.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.6K
$10.00
- NO
Will Iran legalize gay marriage?
1209 shares @ 96.1¢·now 97.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.2K
$18.21
- NO
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?
959 shares @ 70.2¢·now 74.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$709.61
$36.56
- NO
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
381 shares @ 75.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$348.73
$62.89
- YES
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
1748 shares @ 20.1¢·now 19.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$340.89
$-10.29
- YES
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?
1309 shares @ 49.7¢·now 22.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$288.06
$-362.25
- YES
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
4907 shares @ 12.8¢·now 4.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$220.80
$-408.94
- NO
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
230 shares @ 84.5¢·now 90.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$207.37
$12.61
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?$100.00May 18, 04:25 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$191.52May 18, 03:30 UTC
- REWARD$2.52May 18, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran legalize gay marriage?$1.00May 17, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?$74.78May 17, 16:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?$0.12May 17, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?$24.00May 17, 13:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?$1.10May 17, 13:16 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$0.20May 17, 09:46 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$0.61May 17, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$2.05May 17, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$0.80May 17, 08:11 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.28May 17, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$631.47May 16, 17:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$6.00May 16, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?$1.83May 16, 03:41 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$4.53May 16, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$2.96May 16, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran legalize gay marriage?$61.51May 15, 21:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran legalize gay marriage?$10.00May 15, 19:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $221.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 14, 00:00 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 04:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".