Aged-Wombat
0x45dbbf4fed6c845f4e857edc6e744236501c8f65
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$1.5K
Total PnL
$-2.7K
Realised
$159.29
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
2500 shares @ 54.6¢·now 21.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$537.50
$-827.75
- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
5000 shares @ 16.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$475.00
$-324.89
- YES
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?
400 shares @ 81.8¢·now 53.5¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$214.00
$-113.41
- YES
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
600 shares @ 64.6¢·now 19.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$117.00
$-270.42
- YES
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?
3000 shares @ 33.0¢·now 2.9¢·exp May 31, 2026$88.50
$-901.76
- YES
Trump out as President by June 30?
5000 shares @ 7.0¢·now 1.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$67.50
$-282.50
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
2000 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$15.00
$-72.61
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
3500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-34.84
Recent activity
- TRADESELLTrump out as President by June 30?$350.00Apr 11, 01:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?$0.09Apr 10, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?$274.71Apr 9, 22:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?$548.51Apr 9, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?$320.57Apr 9, 22:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?$267.03Apr 9, 22:28 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump out as President before 2027?$800.00Apr 9, 22:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?$5.74Apr 9, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?$44.47Apr 9, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?$4.56Apr 9, 16:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?$4.56Apr 9, 16:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?$268.00Apr 9, 16:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$74.25Apr 9, 15:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$144.84Apr 9, 15:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$1.1KApr 8, 12:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$7.02Apr 7, 22:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$35.00Apr 7, 21:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$1.00Apr 7, 21:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$1.10Apr 7, 21:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$1.00Apr 7, 21:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $112.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 2, 14:08 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 11, 01:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".