Improbable-Documentary
0x4728d8377019661b41a2fdca0da55c1dd1e06426
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
76
Open notional
$51.1K
Total PnL
$-28.4K
Realised
$22.5K
Win rate
46%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 76- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
22250 shares @ 78.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$17.2K
$-111.25
- YES
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?
11869 shares @ 61.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$11.9K
$4.5K
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
7330 shares @ 78.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$7.3K
$1.6K
- YES
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
4800 shares @ 73.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$4.8K
$1.3K
- YES
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?
2934 shares @ 91.6¢·now 98.6¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$2.9K
$204.79
- NO
Discord IPO before 2027?
4465 shares @ 35.9¢·now 45.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.0K
$410.67
- YES
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
1128 shares @ 67.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp May 27, 2026$930.86
$174.89
- NO
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
1563 shares @ 66.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$836.40
$-195.42
- YES
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
3457 shares @ 30.2¢·now 21.5¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$743.24
$-301.86
- YES
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
1200 shares @ 40.3¢·now 58.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$701.87
$218.75
Recent activity
- YIELD$2.07May 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$2.07May 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$2.07May 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$2.07May 15, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$2.09May 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$2.07May 13, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$2.06May 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$2.07May 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$2.05May 10, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$2.11May 9, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$2.18May 8, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$2.16May 7, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$2.16May 6, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$2.19May 5, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.38May 4, 00:14 UTC
- REWARD$5.00May 4, 00:00 UTC
- YIELD$1.56May 3, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$1.45May 2, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$2.01May 1, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$1.76Apr 30, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $195.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 5, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".