0x490c9434f9362ab81e30073b71936cf3e929865a
0x490c9434f9362ab81e30073b71936cf3e929865a
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
28
Open notional
$73.63
Total PnL
$-21.36
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
14 shares @ 70.2¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.75
$-0.25
- NO
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22?
6 shares @ 81.0¢·now 93.9¢·exp May 22, 2026$5.80
$0.80
- NO
Iran leadership change by June 30?
6 shares @ 88.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.89
$-0.11
- YES
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
21 shares @ 24.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$4.69
$-0.31
- YES
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
11 shares @ 44.4¢·now 41.5¢·exp May 19, 2026$4.67
$-0.33
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the LA-06 House seat?
6 shares @ 44.0¢·now 78.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.43
$1.93
- NO
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
23 shares @ 11.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$3.52
$1.02
- YES
Will Duke Rodriguez win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?
17 shares @ 15.0¢·now 21.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$3.50
$1.00
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?
10 shares @ 25.1¢·now 25.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.54
$0.04
- NO
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?
3 shares @ 97.4¢·now 98.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$2.52
$0.02
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$1.06May 18, 04:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$2.57May 18, 00:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$2.57May 17, 23:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?$2.51May 17, 18:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?$2.67May 17, 15:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 21?$2.51May 17, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by June 30?$2.51May 17, 13:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by June 30?$2.51May 17, 13:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$2.51May 17, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 18?$2.51May 17, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$2.51May 17, 12:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by May 31?$2.51May 17, 01:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$2.51May 17, 01:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$2.51May 17, 01:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel win Eurovision 2026?$5.24May 17, 01:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-05-16?$2.55May 17, 00:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?$2.60May 15, 18:29 UTC
- TRADESELLMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$1.25May 15, 14:04 UTC
- REDEEMCanadiens vs. Sabres$0.00May 15, 13:10 UTC
- REDEEMCanadiens vs. Sabres$5.10May 15, 13:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $2.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 13, 17:00 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 04:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".