Spotted-Reasoning
0x49a8c6ea1146a69b299cf7d5be3a63b366937153
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$2.0K
Total PnL
$-756.68
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- NO
Base FDV above $12B one day after launch?
500 shares @ 87.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$392.50
$-42.50
- YES
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
295 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$295.00
$0.59
- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?
480 shares @ 70.5¢·now 53.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$256.80
$-81.50
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?
400 shares @ 74.0¢·now 61.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$244.00
$-52.00
- YES
Ethereum flipped in 2026?
500 shares @ 13.0¢·now 38.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$189.99
$125.00
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?
300 shares @ 73.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$133.50
$-85.50
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?
400 shares @ 68.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$122.00
$-150.00
- YES
Base FDV above $10B one day after launch?
500 shares @ 13.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$117.50
$52.50
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?
400 shares @ 54.4¢·now 20.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$82.00
$-135.56
- YES
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $3B?
356 shares @ 55.9¢·now 15.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$53.38
$-145.69
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$294.41Apr 9, 11:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?$90.00Mar 16, 15:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?$0.58Mar 16, 15:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?$3.07Mar 16, 15:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?$10.24Mar 16, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?$77.24Mar 16, 15:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYPredict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?$296.00Mar 8, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYPredict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?$219.00Mar 6, 09:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYPredict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?$272.00Mar 5, 15:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYPredict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?$217.56Mar 5, 15:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paradex launch a token by September 30 2026?$540.00Mar 5, 15:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paradex launch a token by June 30 2026?$941.15Mar 5, 15:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paradex launch a token by June 30 2026?$936.16Feb 28, 12:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paradex launch a token by December 31 2026?$19.83Feb 28, 12:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paradex launch a token by September 30 2026?$535.89Feb 28, 12:39 UTC
- REDEEMFlying Tulip FDV above $400M one day after launch?$846.58Feb 27, 09:44 UTC
- TRADESELLFlying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch?$60.00Feb 23, 21:45 UTC
- TRADESELLFlying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch?$92.99Feb 23, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYFlying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch?$107.87Feb 16, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYFlying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch?$55.33Feb 15, 11:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $163.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 28, 16:13 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 9, 11:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".