Expensive-Reconsideration
0x4a4661eba5a302006f5b993354e92d3149e49cfe
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
26
Open notional
$50.84
Total PnL
$-154.88
Realised
$-7.31
Win rate
0%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- YES
Will Donald Trump announce Jonathan Berry as the next United States Labor Secretary
91 shares @ 5.6¢·now 42.9¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$38.89
$33.83
- YES
Will Donald Trump announce Bryan Slater as the next United States Labor Secretary
41 shares @ 5.2¢·now 17.2¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$7.08
$4.93
- YES
Will Donald Trump announce Patrick Pizzella as the next United States Labor Secretary
69 shares @ 3.5¢·now 2.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.73
$-0.66
- YES
Will Donald Trump announce Brandon Williams as the next United States Labor Secretary
42 shares @ 5.5¢·now 2.9¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.23
$-1.12
- YES
Will Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on IPO day?
23 shares @ 9.4¢·now 4.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.96
$-1.18
- YES
Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?
17 shares @ 20.5¢·now 5.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.96
$-2.48
- NO
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?
35000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-59.99
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?
1045 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.04
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET
929 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-9.29
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET
928 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.93
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce Andrew Puzder as the next United States Labor Secretary$5.57May 1, 19:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce no one as the next United States Labor Secretary in 2026$10.07May 1, 19:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?$13.76Apr 25, 06:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$18.14Apr 25, 06:02 UTC
- TRADESELLNo listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027$4.17Apr 25, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$10.00Apr 24, 07:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 23?$39.68Apr 24, 07:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce Keith Sonderling as the next United States Labor Secretary$50.67Apr 24, 07:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on April 22?$16.92Apr 23, 08:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on April 19, 2026?$1.16Apr 22, 08:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027$4.23Apr 22, 02:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce no one as the next United States Labor Secretary in 2026$1.35Apr 22, 01:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce Jonathan Berry as the next United States Labor Secretary$1.22Apr 22, 01:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce Bryan Slater as the next United States Labor Secretary$0.34Apr 22, 01:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce Bryan Slater as the next United States Labor Secretary$1.66Apr 22, 01:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce Jonathan Berry as the next United States Labor Secretary$1.69Apr 22, 01:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce no one as the next United States Labor Secretary in 2026$3.40Apr 22, 01:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce Andrew Puzder as the next United States Labor Secretary$3.38Apr 22, 01:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce Keith Sonderling as the next United States Labor Secretary$9.15Apr 22, 01:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce Andrew Puzder as the next United States Labor Secretary$2.50Apr 22, 01:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $6.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 21, 10:54 UTC
- Last active
- May 1, 19:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".