Happy-Precedence
0x4a91ee3ef8d4257dac7b758eccf46950acb1983f
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
200
Open notional
$288.00
Total PnL
$-6.5K
Realised
$-44.30
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026?
100 shares @ 96.1¢·now 94.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$94.50
$-1.60
- YES
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 20, 2026?
100 shares @ 92.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$93.50
$1.50
- THIAGO AGUSTIN TIRANTE
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Thiago Agustin Tirante
100 shares @ 50.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp May 25, 2026$51.50
$1.50
- ARTHUR RINDERKNECH
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Thiago Agustin Tirante
100 shares @ 40.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp May 25, 2026$48.50
$8.50
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 27?
1673 shares @ 94.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.6K
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on April 30?
1086 shares @ 98.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.1K
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 2?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 2?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on May 2?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on May 3?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYGeneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Thiago Agustin Tirante$4.37May 18, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYGeneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Thiago Agustin Tirante$5.00May 18, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYGeneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Thiago Agustin Tirante$13.63May 18, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYGeneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Thiago Agustin Tirante$22.00May 18, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYGeneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Thiago Agustin Tirante$3.50May 18, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYGeneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Thiago Agustin Tirante$1.50May 18, 10:24 UTC
- REWARD$0.16May 18, 10:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYInternationaux de Strasbourg: Daria Kasatkina vs Liudmila Samsonova$16.20May 18, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYInternationaux de Strasbourg: Daria Kasatkina vs Liudmila Samsonova$10.40May 18, 08:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYInternationaux de Strasbourg: Daria Kasatkina vs Liudmila Samsonova$25.40May 18, 08:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026?$2.00May 18, 07:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026?$8.57May 18, 07:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYGeneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Thiago Agustin Tirante$40.72May 18, 06:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026?$37.48May 18, 06:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 20, 2026?$21.84May 18, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 20, 2026?$70.38May 18, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026?$48.12May 18, 04:26 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.40May 18, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 18?$5.00May 17, 23:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on May 18?$0.02May 17, 23:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $18.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 12:17 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 10:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".