Unfortunate-Avalanche
0x4aa08c1e4ba6fdcddb752ca8886cc0834c75bfc0
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$330.91
Total PnL
$-43.81
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
147 shares @ 34.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$147.06
$97.06
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
159 shares @ 63.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$67.46
$-32.54
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
1004 shares @ 5.5¢·now 4.8¢·exp May 31, 2026$48.21
$-6.79
- YES
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?
475 shares @ 10.5¢·now 8.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$37.99
$-12.01
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
2500 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$18.75
$3.75
- YES
Will Vincent Keymer win Norway Chess 2026?
71 shares @ 14.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$7.50
$-2.50
- YES
Trump out as President by June 30?
162 shares @ 6.0¢·now 1.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.19
$-7.53
- YES
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?
95 shares @ 52.7¢·now 1.8¢·exp May 17, 2026$1.76
$-48.24
- YES
Netanyahu out by April 30?
500 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Another EU country restricts U.S. military aircraft by April 30?
25 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYConfirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?$51.65May 13, 02:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?$50.00May 12, 21:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus outbreak by June 30?$52.24May 12, 21:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?$105.99May 12, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vincent Keymer win Norway Chess 2026?$10.26May 12, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$15.75May 12, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?$55.00May 11, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother EU country restricts U.S. military aircraft by April 30?$10.00Apr 7, 16:13 UTC
- REDEEMNetanyahu out by March 31?$0.00Apr 7, 16:11 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump out as President by April 30?$12.62Apr 7, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by June 30?$10.00Apr 5, 02:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by April 30?$15.00Apr 5, 02:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET$1.02Mar 25, 18:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET$10.00Mar 25, 18:11 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$17.98Mar 25, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$15.00Mar 25, 18:09 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$116.58Mar 25, 17:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$110.00Mar 25, 17:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by March 31?$10.00Mar 22, 01:56 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$0.00Mar 21, 20:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $20.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 20, 20:13 UTC
- Last active
- May 13, 02:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".