Substantial-Derivative
0x4c4ed99ced89e29721416b19d9f3b6c97cd4b978
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$29.22
Total PnL
$-385.48
Realised
$56.85
Win rate
57%
123 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- OVER 2.5
Blinkova vs. Jovic: Total Sets O/U 2.5
26 shares @ 1.1¢·now 47.1¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$12.09
$11.82
- YES
Will Hamarkameratene win on 2026-03-22?
23 shares @ 7.0¢·now 36.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$8.21
$6.61
- YES
Will Joyce Gipson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?
98 shares @ 0.9¢·now 3.4¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$3.32
$2.47
- YES
Will Taylor Wettach be the Democratic Nominee for IA-01?
114 shares @ 1.8¢·now 2.9¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$3.23
$1.16
- HAMARKAMERATENE
Spread: Hamarkameratene (-2.5)
26 shares @ 5.0¢·now 4.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$1.04
$-0.25
- YES
Will Matt Carroll win The Bachelorette Season 22?
107 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.8¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$0.80
$0.10
- YES
Will Josh Harward win The Bachelorette Season 22?
45 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.5¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$0.23
$-0.31
- YES
Will Michael Baba win The Bachelorette Season 22?
17 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.8¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$0.14
$0.04
- YES
Will Evan Space win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?
89 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$0.13
$-1.27
- YES
Will Brandon Perce win The Bachelorette Season 22?
25 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$0.04
$-0.49
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Brian Cole be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?$0.06May 14, 17:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Arnetress Beatty be the Democratic Nominee for GA-05?$0.10May 14, 06:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Michael Baba win The Bachelorette Season 22?$0.05May 12, 18:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the 2026 trade deficit be between 900B and 1T?$0.94May 11, 10:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Arnetress Beatty be the Democratic Nominee for GA-05?$0.14May 9, 00:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Arnetress Beatty be the Democratic Nominee for GA-05?$0.17May 9, 00:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Santiago Gimenez be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season?$0.02May 7, 16:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Shane Parton win The Bachelorette Season 22?$2.52May 7, 06:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Shane Parton win The Bachelorette Season 22?$0.07May 7, 06:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Shane Parton win The Bachelorette Season 22?$0.07May 7, 06:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Shane Parton win The Bachelorette Season 22?$0.06May 7, 06:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Shane Parton win The Bachelorette Season 22?$0.12May 7, 06:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Khvicha Kvaratskhelia have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Champions League?$43.15May 6, 20:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Khvicha Kvaratskhelia have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Champions League?$7.59May 6, 20:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Khvicha Kvaratskhelia have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Champions League?$4.33May 6, 20:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Khvicha Kvaratskhelia have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Champions League?$4.32May 6, 20:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Khvicha Kvaratskhelia have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Champions League?$5.10May 6, 20:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Khvicha Kvaratskhelia have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Champions League?$7.28May 6, 20:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Khvicha Kvaratskhelia have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Champions League?$8.47May 6, 20:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Khvicha Kvaratskhelia have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Champions League?$4.71May 6, 20:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 24, 23:36 UTC
- Last active
- May 14, 17:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 123 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".