Humble-Donkey
0x4c7190a113c3f91a6effea66679ca15587582b42
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$65.17
Total PnL
$-75.76
Realised
$-1.60
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
100 shares @ 27.0¢·now 24.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$24.85
$-2.15
- YES
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
100 shares @ 24.0¢·now 20.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$20.00
$-4.00
- NO
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
25 shares @ 20.0¢·now 20.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.00
$0.00
- YES
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?
120 shares @ 20.3¢·now 3.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$4.02
$-20.38
- YES
Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026?
13 shares @ 16.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.02
$-0.06
- YES
Will Helen Ogbu win the 2026 Galway West by-election?
29 shares @ 6.9¢·now 6.8¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$1.97
$-0.03
- YES
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?
77 shares @ 2.6¢·now 2.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.77
$-0.23
- YES
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green + Maori + NZF?
31 shares @ 4.9¢·now 5.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$1.76
$0.26
- YES
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
19 shares @ 11.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.61
$-0.47
- YES
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
87 shares @ 2.3¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00May 18, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?$0.08May 17, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?$0.08May 17, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?$0.03May 17, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?$0.08May 17, 08:30 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 17, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?$0.07May 16, 16:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?$0.36May 16, 13:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Cal Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?$2.40May 16, 13:01 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 16, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?$0.07May 15, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill BNB reach $1,000 in May?$0.03May 15, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI announce a watch in 2026?$2.08May 15, 06:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?$0.42May 15, 03:37 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 15, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill BNB reach $1,000 in May?$0.03May 14, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYChirayu Rana divorced?$2.02May 14, 02:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill BNB reach $1,000 in May?$0.02May 14, 00:28 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 14, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill XRP dip to $0.60 in May?$0.07May 13, 21:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $0.64
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 12, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".