Staid-Sorrel
0x4c8b4f69fe57aa2de5be103002066e0203951614
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$104.37
Total PnL
$-2.3K
Realised
$572.36
Win rate
29%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?
269 shares @ 6.3¢·now 8.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$23.34
$6.34
- NO
Will the Republican Party win the NC-05 House seat?
110 shares @ 9.1¢·now 14.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$15.40
$5.40
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
483 shares @ 2.1¢·now 2.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$11.83
$1.83
- YES
US recession by end of 2026?
33 shares @ 30.2¢·now 27.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$9.10
$-0.90
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-04 House seat?
130 shares @ 4.0¢·now 6.6¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$8.50
$3.34
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Connecticut governor race in 2026?
118 shares @ 8.5¢·now 6.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$7.68
$-2.32
- YES
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027
38 shares @ 13.0¢·now 19.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$7.31
$2.31
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
56 shares @ 18.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.95
$-3.06
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the WI-02 House seat?
125 shares @ 8.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$6.88
$-3.13
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the TX-30 House seat?
50 shares @ 9.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.75
$-0.75
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00May 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 1, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 29, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$0.47Apr 15, 10:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$0.48Apr 15, 10:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$0.24Apr 15, 10:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 30 above $210?$9.50Apr 2, 20:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 30 above $210?$2.16Apr 2, 13:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple (AAPL) close above $210 end of March?$0.12Apr 1, 13:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amazon (AMZN) close above $200 end of March?$2.48Apr 1, 13:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,600 on the final trading day of March 2026?$4.88Apr 1, 13:03 UTC
- REDEEMNasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 30?$4.99Apr 1, 13:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 end of March?$5.00Apr 1, 13:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 end of March?$5.00Apr 1, 13:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Palantir (PLTR) close above $140 end of March?$5.59Apr 1, 13:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amazon (AMZN) close above $220 end of March?$5.82Apr 1, 13:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Palantir (PLTR) close above $136 end of March?$5.88Apr 1, 13:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple (AAPL) close above $230 end of March?$9.77Apr 1, 13:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 18
- Avg trade size
- $15.77
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 30, 14:14 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".