Reasonable-Paradise
0x4d1bcbaeed22c6da173b1a356c3c6d2270081419
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$10.1K
Total PnL
$-8.9K
Realised
$-4.5K
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
2927 shares @ 97.7¢·now 99.3¢·exp May 15, 2026$2.9K
$46.01
- NO
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?
3160 shares @ 92.3¢·now 89.5¢·exp May 19, 2026$2.8K
$-90.95
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
1000 shares @ 90.5¢·now 93.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$935.00
$30.00
- NO
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?
700 shares @ 89.7¢·now 97.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$678.65
$50.65
- YES
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
1028 shares @ 64.5¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$652.61
$-10.13
- ANTHROPIC
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
925 shares @ 56.8¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$633.55
$108.63
- NO
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
1667 shares @ 42.4¢·now 32.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$533.58
$-173.68
- YES
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
2995 shares @ 91.2¢·now 17.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$524.16
$-2.2K
- NO
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1211 shares @ 50.1¢·now 29.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$351.13
$-256.08
- NO
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?
105 shares @ 23.3¢·now 22.6¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$23.74
$-0.75
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$1.72May 18, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 19, 2026?$177.19May 18, 00:36 UTC
- REWARD$5.05May 18, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 19, 2026?$177.60May 17, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 19, 2026?$6.71May 17, 23:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 19, 2026?$161.82May 17, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 19, 2026?$0.45May 17, 22:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 19, 2026?$8.58May 17, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 19, 2026?$0.45May 17, 22:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?$10.00May 17, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$324.51May 17, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$66.68May 17, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$195.05May 17, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$696.43May 17, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$391.93May 17, 20:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?$30.00May 17, 20:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 19, 2026?$179.00May 17, 19:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$1.00May 17, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$92.15May 17, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$2.24May 17, 13:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $130.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 16, 22:58 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".