Fat-Cupcake
0x4e4203102fd7bde55ce1bcf9f1ef222e251949ed
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$56.4K
Total PnL
$-5.3K
Realised
$-233.82
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
7000 shares @ 63.4¢·now 95.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$6.7K
$2.2K
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
6151 shares @ 71.6¢·now 92.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$5.7K
$1.3K
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
5000 shares @ 71.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$4.6K
$1.1K
- NO
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
5000 shares @ 77.1¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.9K
$69.87
- NO
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?
3808 shares @ 88.9¢·now 97.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.7K
$316.53
- NO
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election?
4000 shares @ 91.8¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.7K
$-14.38
- NO
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
10000 shares @ 75.7¢·now 36.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.6K
$-3.9K
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
5000 shares @ 72.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.6K
$-25.00
- NO
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?
2799 shares @ 73.0¢·now 95.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.7K
$640.99
- NO
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
3100 shares @ 60.0¢·now 86.3¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$2.7K
$815.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$3.6KMay 18, 05:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYElon Musk trillionaire before 2027?$1.0KMay 18, 00:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$41.36May 16, 14:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?$295.16May 16, 14:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Manchester United finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?$924.33May 16, 14:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$69.31May 16, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$24.90May 16, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$41.50May 16, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$8.30May 16, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$83.83May 16, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$8.79May 16, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$16.60May 16, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$13.28May 16, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$33.20May 16, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$3.0KMay 16, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$11.12May 16, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$8.30May 16, 13:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?$3.0KMay 16, 11:36 UTC
- REDEEMJerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?$20.0KMay 16, 02:17 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.49May 16, 00:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $517.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 4, 18:45 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 05:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".