0x4e84ce1599d3d0272932a729c2a3310b734bef69
0x4e84ce1599d3d0272932a729c2a3310b734bef69
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
79
Open notional
$8.0K
Total PnL
$1.9K
Realised
$1.6K
Win rate
58%
71 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 79- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
985 shares @ 49.2¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$940.36
$456.25
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
753 shares @ 52.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$753.49
$356.41
- NO
Iran leadership change by May 31?
751 shares @ 74.5¢·now 93.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$701.91
$142.37
- NO
Iran leadership change by June 30?
726 shares @ 68.1¢·now 86.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$623.98
$129.97
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
573 shares @ 93.7¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$564.57
$27.44
- YES
Iran leadership change by December 31?
1035 shares @ 55.6¢·now 34.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$357.12
$-218.67
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
353 shares @ 91.8¢·now 98.8¢·exp May 31, 2026$348.35
$24.60
- YES
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by December 31?
327 shares @ 88.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$327.32
$39.32
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
314 shares @ 93.2¢·now 95.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$299.59
$7.18
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
259 shares @ 62.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$259.13
$96.02
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$6.75May 18, 11:44 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$1.00May 18, 10:43 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$4.60May 18, 10:42 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$1.42May 18, 10:39 UTC
- REWARD$0.26May 18, 10:15 UTC
- TRADESELLMasoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?$0.09May 18, 10:09 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$1.00May 18, 09:32 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$1.00May 18, 09:31 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$1.40May 18, 08:57 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$0.26May 18, 08:53 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$10.00May 18, 08:20 UTC
- TRADESELLInternet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?$14.24May 18, 07:43 UTC
- TRADESELLInternet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?$1.81May 18, 07:43 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$4.41May 18, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$1.62May 18, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYInternet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?$1.05May 18, 04:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYInternet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?$1.00May 18, 04:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYInternet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?$1.00May 18, 04:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYInternet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?$7.95May 18, 04:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYInternet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?$4.05May 18, 04:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $5.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 20:56 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 11:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 71 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".