Physical-Complex
0x4ffd4c3a408b0f3deafd4789ede10c7b05edfd3c
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
45
Open notional
$127.40
Total PnL
$-328.27
Realised
$-1.98
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- YES
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?
1699 shares @ 23.2¢·now 7.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$127.40
$-266.19
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?
6230 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-6.23
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Scott Stringer win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Christian Union win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Frances Fitzgerald win the Irish Presidential Election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 11, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Peter Casey win the Irish Presidential Election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 11, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$1.70May 9, 13:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$1.52May 7, 07:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on May 7?$1.16May 7, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on May 7?$1.01May 6, 08:31 UTC
- TRADESELLMasoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?$1.45May 6, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYMasoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?$127.84Apr 6, 08:01 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by December 31?$127.84Apr 6, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYMasoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?$269.23Apr 6, 07:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by December 31?$202.68Mar 11, 09:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?$2.23Mar 10, 19:56 UTC
- REDEEMKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?$1.8KMar 10, 19:56 UTC
- REWARD$4.40Mar 5, 09:02 UTC
- TRADESELLKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?$380.57Feb 28, 09:54 UTC
- TRADESELLKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?$10.00Feb 28, 07:59 UTC
- TRADESELLKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?$650.00Feb 28, 07:58 UTC
- TRADESELLKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?$100.00Feb 28, 07:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?$5.74Feb 27, 09:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?$1.11Feb 27, 09:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?$1.11Feb 27, 09:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?$8.69Feb 27, 09:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $115.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 15, 10:05 UTC
- Last active
- May 9, 13:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".