Careful-Shortage
0x517686ae5a4494963fe0b3a49abee0cc9558a77b
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
4
Open notional
$101.00
Total PnL
$-29.00
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
147 shares @ 68.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$74.26
$-25.74
- YES
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1514 shares @ 0.7¢·now 1.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.17
$8.17
- YES
Obama arrested before 2027?
85 shares @ 11.8¢·now 10.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.56
$-1.44
- YES
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
31 shares @ 32.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYObama arrested before 2027?$10.00Apr 26, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?$10.00Apr 14, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$10.00Apr 12, 19:18 UTC
- REDEEMUK Cabinet Minister resigns by February 28, 2026?$0.00Apr 11, 21:45 UTC
- REDEEMStarmer out by February 28, 2026?$0.00Apr 11, 21:45 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$83.33Apr 11, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by February 28, 2026?$100.00Feb 9, 15:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$26.67Feb 9, 14:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$20.00Feb 9, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by February 28, 2026?$40.00Feb 9, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYUK Cabinet Minister resigns by February 28, 2026?$40.00Feb 9, 12:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$40.00Feb 9, 12:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$100.00Feb 9, 12:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by February 28, 2026?$40.00Feb 9, 12:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 11
- Avg trade size
- $39.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 9, 12:50 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 26, 17:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".