Careful-Palace
0x56543bc508f0b85fc5d448515baf8a6d67b0dc18
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$3.7K
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$-25.97
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
1193 shares @ 50.3¢·now 68.3¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$815.53
$215.53
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
5151 shares @ 19.4¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$643.89
$-356.10
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
625 shares @ 80.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$578.13
$78.13
- YES
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?
2791 shares @ 25.1¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$460.46
$-239.53
- NO
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
763 shares @ 65.6¢·now 48.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$370.22
$-129.78
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
294 shares @ 34.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$280.88
$180.88
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
294 shares @ 68.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$251.47
$51.47
- YES
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
1052 shares @ 9.5¢·now 9.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$99.94
$-0.06
- YES
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?
7054 shares @ 12.8¢·now 1.3¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$88.18
$-811.80
- YES
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
135 shares @ 37.1¢·now 51.4¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$69.40
$19.40
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$504.00May 1, 17:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$633.54May 1, 17:46 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?$184.82Apr 23, 06:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?$300.00Apr 23, 06:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$100.00Apr 23, 06:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?$200.00Apr 23, 06:25 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$253.33Apr 23, 06:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?$200.00Apr 23, 06:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?$200.00Apr 23, 06:21 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?$526.41Apr 23, 06:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?$124.03Apr 23, 06:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?$300.00Apr 22, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?$200.00Apr 22, 04:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$538.48Apr 22, 04:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?$122.86Apr 22, 04:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$500.00Apr 19, 00:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$100.00Apr 18, 17:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$200.00Apr 18, 17:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?$100.00Apr 18, 17:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?$221.77Apr 15, 00:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $253.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 24, 04:52 UTC
- Last active
- May 1, 17:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".