Probable-Pup
0x569e6a1ae3f5c6e99a68cf789c1a838f33ccfdab
Wallet digest
Activity score
35/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
6
Open notional
$2.45
Total PnL
$-19.82
Realised
$-16.11
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Catherine Fleming Bruce be the Democratic nominee for Senate in North Carolina?
16 shares @ 6.6¢·now 4.6¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.73
$-0.32
- YES
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
72 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.69
$-0.04
- YES
Will Perplexity’s market cap be greater than $100B at market close on IPO day?
11 shares @ 9.8¢·now 6.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.67
$-0.43
- YES
Will Waymo operate in 6 cities on June 30 2026?
13 shares @ 8.3¢·now 1.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.23
$-0.87
- YES
Will Ryan Dotson be the Republican Nominee for KY-06?
59 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.09
$-1.00
- YES
Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 32 and 35 inclusive?
17 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.04
$-1.06
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?$0.88May 13, 23:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?$1.14May 13, 23:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nicholas Sciretta be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?$1.06May 13, 23:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nicholas Sciretta be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?$1.14May 13, 23:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the NH-01 House seat?$0.73May 13, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the NH-01 House seat?$0.85May 13, 23:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill an independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?$0.87May 13, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill an independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?$0.92May 13, 23:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the NH-01 House seat?$0.66May 13, 23:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) settle at $5,400-$5,800 in June?$0.85May 13, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) settle at $5,400-$5,800 in June?$1.14May 13, 05:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.6% and 2.0%?$0.51May 13, 05:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Waymo operate in 6 cities on June 30 2026?$1.14May 13, 04:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$0.80May 13, 04:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?$0.08May 12, 19:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?$0.94May 11, 23:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?$1.14May 11, 23:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hillary Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2027?$0.32May 11, 23:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?$0.73May 11, 22:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?$1.02May 11, 22:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 10, 17:44 UTC
- Last active
- May 13, 23:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".