Gracious-Cayenne
0x582a3849078a613fc9baf451147e5658ec947bb2
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
38
Open notional
$192.76
Total PnL
$-24.00
Realised
$40.44
Win rate
73%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- YES
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?
30 shares @ 43.0¢·now 52.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$15.72
$2.72
- YES
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?
27 shares @ 55.4¢·now 56.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$15.17
$0.18
- YES
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?
16 shares @ 81.1¢·now 78.6¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$12.58
$-0.40
- NO
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
20 shares @ 50.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$12.50
$2.50
- NO
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?
18 shares @ 70.7¢·now 66.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.16
$-0.84
- NO
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?
18 shares @ 71.6¢·now 66.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$12.15
$-0.85
- YES
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
191 shares @ 3.4¢·now 5.9¢·exp May 31, 2026$11.18
$4.68
- YES
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch?
47 shares @ 9.0¢·now 21.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$9.97
$5.70
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?
27 shares @ 40.4¢·now 36.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$9.89
$-1.10
- YES
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before May 31, 2026?
58 shares @ 19.0¢·now 17.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$9.84
$-1.16
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?$13.00May 18, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYNamed storm forms before hurricane season?$6.50May 18, 13:41 UTC
- TRADESELLNamed storm forms before hurricane season?$7.19May 18, 13:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$10.80May 18, 13:27 UTC
- TRADESELLSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?$3.82May 18, 10:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?$3.96May 18, 09:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?$0.84May 18, 08:33 UTC
- TRADESELLSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?$11.03May 18, 08:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?$11.03May 18, 07:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Pacifica launch a token by December 31 2026?$2.30May 18, 06:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cursor be acquired before 2027?$3.20May 18, 00:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYReya FDV above $200M one day after launch?$2.08May 17, 19:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYReya FDV above $200M one day after launch?$2.20May 17, 17:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill PayPal be acquired before 2027?$0.45May 17, 16:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill PayPal be acquired before 2027?$12.60May 17, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PayPal be acquired before 2027?$13.00May 17, 14:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027?$13.21May 17, 13:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?$12.06May 17, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027?$13.00May 17, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?$13.00May 17, 13:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $9.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 15, 12:39 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 14:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".