Complicated-Innovation
0x585bef2dc5b122bb8b93dd421f32dd1ca2f4753f
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
158
Open notional
$36.3K
Total PnL
$-8.5K
Realised
$46.14
Win rate
51%
35 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 158- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
14000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 81.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$11.4K
$4.4K
- NO
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
5143 shares @ 64.5¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$2.9K
$-411.93
- YES
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
22891 shares @ 24.7¢·now 12.6¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$2.9K
$-2.8K
- NO
Chirayu Rana sued?
9955 shares @ 29.4¢·now 28.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.8K
$-89.67
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
14000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 18.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.6K
$-4.4K
- NO
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?
1562 shares @ 67.0¢·now 91.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.4K
$387.28
- NO
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
3359 shares @ 73.8¢·now 41.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.4K
$-1.1K
- NO
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?
1069 shares @ 59.8¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$1.1K
$420.72
- YES
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
1766 shares @ 37.4¢·now 41.5¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$733.02
$72.82
- NO
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?
407 shares @ 39.8¢·now 76.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$311.68
$149.34
Recent activity
- YIELD$1.54May 18, 00:16 UTC
- REWARD$2.27May 18, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMConfirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?$0.00May 17, 10:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?$36.00May 17, 07:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?$53.03May 17, 07:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?$116.28May 17, 07:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?$139.32May 17, 07:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Czechia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?$212.84May 17, 07:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?$438.44May 17, 07:56 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.40May 17, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$1.54May 17, 00:14 UTC
- REWARD$1.54May 17, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYChirayu Rana sued?$58.00May 16, 13:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$165.52May 16, 10:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$1.76May 16, 09:19 UTC
- YIELD$1.69May 16, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYChirayu Rana sued?$41.64May 15, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYChirayu Rana sued?$0.49May 15, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYChirayu Rana sued?$0.67May 15, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYChirayu Rana sued?$0.94May 15, 15:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $161.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 12, 15:31 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 35 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".