Dead-Lava
0x629bc4a1e53e1d475beb7ea3d388791e96dd995a
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$110.6K
Total PnL
$-567.16
Realised
$90.8K
Win rate
80%
30 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
114126 shares @ 28.3¢·now 34.6¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$39.5K
$7.3K
- NO
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
11187 shares @ 81.2¢·now 81.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.1K
$-24.64
- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
8017 shares @ 90.3¢·now 92.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.4K
$204.43
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
6013 shares @ 87.5¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.6K
$360.79
- NO
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
6823 shares @ 76.8¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.4K
$184.39
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
5111 shares @ 84.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.5K
$229.99
- NO
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
4444 shares @ 88.5¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.1K
$133.32
- NO
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
7065 shares @ 60.6¢·now 55.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.9K
$-398.54
- NO
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?
3766 shares @ 90.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.6K
$169.47
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
7834 shares @ 37.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$3.5K
$587.59
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$4.10May 18, 05:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$61.50May 18, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$1.75May 18, 02:30 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$14.03May 18, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$0.98May 18, 00:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.56May 18, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$41.00May 18, 00:02 UTC
- REWARD$39.57May 18, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$1.21May 17, 23:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$1.12May 17, 23:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$933.24May 17, 23:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$833.25May 17, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$1.7KMay 17, 14:57 UTC
- MERGEWill Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?$193.11May 17, 08:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$172.31May 17, 07:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Finland win Eurovision 2026?$1.1KMay 17, 07:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$2.7KMay 17, 07:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$929.91May 17, 03:33 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$9.91May 17, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.56May 17, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $174.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 16, 17:17 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 05:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 30 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".